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at least my first post was on topic !

Ok, now just to get serious for a short while (or until Geoff wakes up and starts leading me off the straight and narrow again)

Oz swine flu

I also have a couple of PDFs of summary reports which I could email to anyone who is interested

Don't have time to plough through all that! Care to summarize it for us? My own guess is that a lot of the cases attributed to "Swine 'Flu" have nothing to do with hogs at all. That is, they are most likely just the "normal" seasonal influenza cases, and cases where "pre-existing health issues" have been pushed over the edge - exacerbated - by the extra stress caused by the H1N1 virus.

But before people start getting carried away spending £££ (AUD, or whatever) millions on ventilators and the like, may I remind everyone that the virus is spread by coughing, sneezing or touching contaminated surfaces and then touching the nose or mouth.

And by the way Dave, rust never sleeps (that is, you're never safe).

Summarize? certainly, see my first post on H1N1...... it's a fizzer ('though if it should turn into the next balck death I shall deny any such statement). No worse than the norm and it would seem, not worth spending mega bucks on. Yes, some who are already comprimised will suffer but..

and, yes, wash your hands, cover your mouth/nose is the way to go.

Heartless, perhaps, but...

Don't worry, if it indeed turns out to be the next Black Death, none of us will be around to complain (any more) about your posts, anyway!

Heartless? Try this ... if people weren't so ignorant, selfish (not to mention just plain dumb), the rest of us wouldn't have to put up with [censored] like this anyway. But (looking on the bright side), hopefully "natural selection" shall prevail!

Great Plagues and Pestilences of Biblical proportions will always thrive in conditions of overcrowding, poor nutrition, immobility, lack of ventilation (aka fresh air), poor sanitation, and filth in general (but no, I'm not especially talking about British hospitals here ... but "if the cap fits").

And in our Wonderful Modern World, where some (many?) seemingly prefer to live in the cesspit purely through choice, perhaps we need to add "self-inflicted ailments" to that list of good cheer.

Meanwhile, travelling out to *deprived areas of the world like "sardines in a can" (modern air travel) is not wise, in my opinion. That's one of reasons I don't do it any more!

* Tourism ... or voyeurism?

Now, this is a bit of a worry.....

"Man contracts swine flu resistant to
Tamiflu
Western Australia News
A PERTH man has become the first person in Australia to contract
a strain of swine flu which is resistant to the antiviral drug Tamiflu.
WA Health confirmed the 38-year-old man, who has a weakened
immune system, initially responded to the drug but developed a
resistant strain of the virus when his illness relapsed.
There have been 13 cases of Tamiflu-resistant infections reported
around the world."

I guess it is inevitable, particularly given the over use of drugs but, once again, we are now faced with a problem. The only bright note I can add is that the other day the initial trails results of a vaccine trial have been very (95% or there abouts) good.

From what you're saying, the guy was already compromised.

Meanwhile, what does that 95% mean ... that amount of folk who didn't wince during vaccination? Or those who haven't reacted yet to doses of oseltamivir phosphate? And ... what became of the 5%?

mmm, no, the point was..

a strain of H1N1 which is resistant to the most commonly used anti-viral has now arisen. This will reduce the ability to treat those who have become infected.

and

in the trial of a new vaccine, 95% of those given the treatment produced the nessesary antibodies to make them immune to the virus. The 5% did not and do not carry the immunity. This will allow for the protection of people like, those who are already compromised, healthcare and essential services workers (whose absence from work would worsen any major outbreak), etc.

I watched a documentary on the Telly last night that indicated the risk is lower than first anticipated, and also read a report from the cabinet office this morning which states the number serious cases will be far less that first reported. this has made me think that we do not need to invest in £M's of medical kit as a contingency. We will probably cope as we are if we are prepared to move some stuff around.Even so, a few more CAP units and some bottled O2 would not be a huge investment to make - and with obesity on the rise - we could make use of the CPAP untis for sleep apnoea.

Overstated? Why am I not surprised by that?

Yes, it's always best to keep your powder dry, as it were ... whilst the rest of the dopes run around like headless chickens. Especially the obese ones, of course.

However, I am impressed to hear that you're receiving briefings from the Cabinet Office, though, John.

Watch out the New Year's Honours, that's all I can say.