You don't think it's been a forgone conclusion for a long time then? I have since I started hearing rumours from all around the country that EBMEs have been retructuring from top to bottom to ensure that key staff in MTO3 and MTO4 grades are being placed in positions where their job-roles can be differentiated from others by being given supervisory and specialist duties. My impression is that "only key-staff run maintenance departments and make them work" the rest of the working grades must take their chances at AfC.
Keeping a core of "key-staff" sweet will prevent departments from collapsing whilst the compromised MTO3s leave their band5 equivalent posts to search for something with prospects and without the shadow of R&R, whether it's long-term or not, and are replaced with band4 replacements.
I have been of the opinion that MTO3 will be Band5 and that MTO3*s and above, excluding MTO5s, will be placed onto band6 for a long time. Management where I work seem to think that it's ok as long as there is R&R so they're not interested that there will be no prospect of progression for the majority of "working grade" technicians at the top of MTO3 like myself.
I have watched and heard of 20-odd of my colleagues from ATO up to MTO5 being restructured and told that I have no say because it doesn't affect me - thus the majority of the department has been reorganised or been given new job-descriptions, promotions, or been offered responsibilities or additional duties, prior to AfC, that could influence AfC matching, except for a few MTO3s like myself who are now a minority in their own department (in terms of being offered the chance to develop into roles within the proposed system, post AfC).
AfC is apparently being used as a means to develop the service where I work and my understanding is that AfC is not there to do this. Job roles should be what is currently being done not what's planned in the future. If that's happening elsewhere then it's a stitch-up or an abuse of the system and you have to be blind not to see it. That's the thanks you get for working hard and sharing knowledge, skills and experience and helping to hold things together.